Where There's Blood, There's Opportunity
A trickle of panic and hysteria was felt on Wednesday, October 1st as we witnessed a correlation spike to 1 across the market, resulting in an entanglement of stock price direction such that everything ebbed and flowed in concert. The collective "herd", comprised of algo's, main street, and over-leveraged day traders, presented those with a more "colored" view of the markets an opportunity to exploit irrationality. As a fund manager, especially Global Macro, cash is always available to purchase stock, and we did discuss the prudence of raising cash levels ahead of the month of October in anticipation for a general and perhaps sharp stock market decline earlier following the return of fund managers from their August vacations. Shorting is the fundamental truth of "hedge funds", and their absence in August was felt when the market rally accelerated, allowing those who weren't on vacation a chance to profit and wait out September to see if there would be a regression. The past several days did in fact create a slow but steady sell-off which manifested into a cascade selling-exhaustion on October 2nd, wiping out most of the August rally. However, going into October, there's a chance we'll see another wave lower before we see a bounce to close the year strong, merely because of the tendency for this pattern to repeat itself every October, compliments of Behavioral Finance. (Author's Note: That 2nd wave lower occurred through October 13th and Tuesday October 14th is the start of the earnings season, which may be the catalyst to end the anticipated decline in the overall market).
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