When Will Electric Cars Begin To Outsell Petrol And Diesel In The UK? Forecast Suggests Sooner Than You Think

Expert panel says there's been a recent 'step-change' in public opinion towards electric vehicles

  • Prediction based on stats from the Government, Committee on Climate Change, RAC Foundation, Auto Express and other industry authorities

  • By Rob Hull For Thisismoney.co.uk >

    Published: 08:00 EDT, 30 June 2016 | Updated: 11:35 EDT, 30 June 2016

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    Electric cars are the future, we're constantly being told. But how far into the future will they be the dominant form of propulsion for new cars sold in the UK?

    According to an expert panel, the first year electric cars will outsell conventional combustion engined vehicles is 2027.

    And it's all because of a recent 'step-change' in the public's opinion of electric vehicles, bringing the tipping point way ahead of the Government's expectations of a fully electrified road network in 2040.

    Plugging into the idea of an electric cars: New EV sales will overtake petrol and diesel by 2027 an expert panel has predicted

    Plugging into the idea of an electric cars: New EV sales will overtake petrol and diesel by 2027 an expert panel has predicted

    Go Ultra Low, a government and industry-backed campaign to educate motorists about the benefits of electric cars, said more than 1.3million electric cars will be registered in 2027.

    That would see them outselling new petrol and diesel vehicles, based on a new-car registration total of 2.6million - the same as 2015. 

    It made the bold claim after reviewing multiple electric-car reports and forecasts concerning electric vehicle take-up, including results from Auto Express' most recent Driver Power survey.

    The weekly car magazine recently reported record high scores for EVs in its flagship car owner survey, with electric cars topping the overall best car tables and performing strongly in ease of driving and running costs categories, among others.

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    Steve Fowler, Auto Express editor-in-chief backed the 11-year-time estimate, saying it was totally viable for the electric cars to overtake the rest of the market.

    'The positivity and appreciation of electric vehicles by their owners in this year’s Driver Power survey is suggestive of a step-change in public perception of these vehicles,' he said.

    'We are moving towards a tipping point for electrically-powered cars, so it’s entirely possible that by 2027 these vehicles will dominate the market as the top choice for new car buyers.'

    Go Ultra Low said it had analysed a series of market forecasts and trends for plug-in vehicle uptake considering forecasts by government, the Committee on Climate Change, the RAC Foundation, Auto Express and other industry authorities. 

    More than 60,000 electric cars have been registered in the UK in the last five years. Experts believe the figure will grown to 1.3 million a year by 2027

    More than 60,000 electric cars have been registered in the UK in the last five years. Experts believe the figure will grown to 1.3 million a year by 2027

    Electric cars, like the BMW i3 (left), will become mainstream in 11 years. The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is the best-selling alternative-fuel hybrid car at the moment

    Electric cars, like the BMW i3 (left), will become mainstream in 11 years. The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is the best-selling alternative-fuel hybrid car at the moment

    With EV uptake increasing, the campaign group's analysis suggested that the Government forecast for all new cars and vans to have ultra low emissions by 2040 is looking viable. 

    Electric car sales have grown progressively in the last five years, aided by the Plug-in Car Grant, which offered a £5,000 subsidy towards an electric or plug-in hybrid car in 2011.

    Last year, the grant was amended on the back of increasing uptake, with a maximum contribution of £4,500 towards the price of a new all-electric vehicle. 

    In the same year, a record 28,000 electric cars were registered in the UK - the equivalent of one every 13 minutes. 

    Poppy Welch, head of Go Ultra Low, said: 'The huge interest in electric vehicles and their subsequent rapid rise in uptake has been spectacular so far, with more than 60,000 EVs registered in the past five years. 

    'These rises are just the start of the electric revolution as Go Ultra Low analysis suggests that electric vehicles could dominate the new car market as early as 2027.'  

    The Nissan Leaf is currently the nation's best-selling full-electric car

    The Nissan Leaf is currently the nation's best-selling full-electric car

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    Source : https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-3664272/When-s-tipping-point-EVS-outsell-petrol-diesel.html

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